The first stage (or central stage) of the Long March 5B rocket that launched Wentian, the second module of the Chinese Tiangong Space Station, on July 24th.
The rocket is 53.6 m high, given its size not the whole stadium will burn when it returns to the atmosphere while the remaining part, from 20 to 40% of the rocket, will return uncontrollably to Earth.
According to the experts of the Aerospace Corporation at the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS) they are following this reentry and have determined that the stadium can fit within the areas marked, within the map, with the yellow and blue stripes (in this area lives over 88% of the world population).
The areas above and below the lines are not exposed to the risk of reentry, this is due to the inclination of the object's orbit (41.48°).
The return is now scheduled for 23:21 UTC on Saturday 30 July with an uncertainty of ± 16 hours. (01:21 on July 31 in Italian time).
The return date will become more and more precise as the time approaches.
The past times
Even for the two previous launches of this rocket, in 2020 and 2021, the first stage had made an uncontrolled reentry into the Earth's atmosphere.
In 2020, a 12-meter-long tube belonging to the Long March 5B (Changzheng 5B) rocket was found in a village in Ivory Coast. The village was approximately 2,100 km air distance from the re-entry zone indicated by Space-Track.com.